Awhile ago, we launched the RSVP system. At the same time, I launched a related system to track attendance history on the backend. I've now merged the information from these two systems to provide us with predictive participant counts. Now, when you go to the Who's Coming list for upcoming events, you will see a line that reads, "Predicted Participants - X Players and X Plot Members." These numbers will be used by plot to plan out the event, as well as by Nick and I to determine if we bump off-season events to two days.
For anyone who's curious, here's how it works. Whenever someone RSVPs, the system will determine the number of past events for which that person gave the same response (i.e., "Yes" or "Maybe"). It will then divide that into the number of those events the person ended up attending. The result is the probability that you will attend the listed event based on your RSVP and attendance history, and is added to the running total.
For example, let's say that you've RSVPed "Yes" for nine games, seven of which you attended. When you RSVP "Yes" again, you will count as 0.78 players (7 divided by 9). There's a pretty good chance you'll come, but based on your history, it's not 100%.
On the other hand, let's say you've said "Maybe" for four games and haven't shown up to any of them. When you RSVP "Maybe" again, you won't count at all (0 divded by 4 is 0). Sorry, but in cases such as this, your track record speak against you, and we want as much accuracy as possible.
Note that the predictions are a bit pessimistic. If you RSVP as "No", you'll always count as zero, even if you've attended in the past after saying you wouldn't. If you've RSVPed the same way once before and didn't attend, you'll also count as zero, even though you only missed one game that you said you'd attend. If there's no historical data to go on, however, it will give you the benefit of the doubt and count you as 1 for "Yes" and 0.5 for "Maybe."
I doubt the technical minutiae interests many of you, but I like to explain it so I can sound smart everyone understands how the numbers are generated. Please let me know if you have any questions, and, as always, enjoy!